Narendra Modi for PM?

When a politician starts becoming sure of the permanency of his position in the society he represents, he ceases to be a politician, and starts becoming a statesman. At least, he affords to project himself as a statesman. These days, Narendra Modi, the chief minister of Gujarat, is doing exactly that. There are a plethora of other factors, and not just his popularity as a CM that has kept BJP in power in Gujarat for so long now, and that would continue to do so for a long time in the foreseeable future. After witnessing Anna Hazare’s stupendous success with the old but amazingly effective weapon, Narendra Modi was quick to adopt the concept of fasting in order to garner public attention towards his actions and words. Boosted by the recent Supreme court’s decision to refer to the trial court Zakia Jafri’s plea for having a fresh look into her allegations of deliberate inaction by the chief minister causing the death of her husband Ehsaan Jafri along with dozens of other people on 28 February 2002, Narendra Modi promptly announced a three-day ‘Sadbhavna’ fast with an aim to kill two birds with a single stone. Interestingly, the dates of his fast coincide with his 61^st birthday. It is a different matter that the Supreme Court’s ruling is being incorrectly assumed by BJP and Narendra Modi as a victory of sorts. One must realize that the apex court has not set aside Zakia Jafri’s plea; it has only referred it to a lower court. It has not permanently closed its door to Zakia’s plea. However, this little flicker of hope towards exoneration for Modi, if we can call it that, was magnified by his party and supporters into a bonfire of celebrations, bringing the people in general to believe that there indeed was good news for Modi’s supporters. How many would, after all, actually care to look into the details of the ruling?

Though the 2014 general elections cannot yet be said to be round the corner, it is never too early, or too late in politics. The most important thing is to recognize an opportunity when it is there for grabs, and LK Advani’s announcement of a pan-India ‘anti-corruption’ rath yatra (Oh God, not another one!) and Narendra Modi’s antics with the five-star fast (His three-day fast is being held in the state-of-the-art Gujarat university convention centre in Ahmedabad with a seating capacity of 7000, enhanced further by a couple of thousand seats with help of tents) can be seen as the first steps towards mission 2014. Elections 2014 is one bird that I said Narendra Modi is trying to kill with his ‘fast’ stone. It was very conspicuous that this time round, instead of addressing the people as ‘six-crore Gujaratis’, Narendra Modi referred to the masses as ‘My dear country-men’ in his open letter just before the fast. Obviously, he has started visualizing himself beyond Gujarat. As a Prime Minister? Some people do fancy him in that position. And he himself does, too. After AB Vajpayee, who is out of active politics because of a multitude of ailments, BJP currently has no true national leader. In private, LK Advani believes himself to be one, but after the fiasco of 2004, and again in 2009, not many in the BJP are willing to place their bets on the aging patriarch. And the luke-warm response by his own party-men to his latest rath-yatra intentions is testimony to that sentiment. That leaves younger leaders in the BJP like Sushma Swaraj, and Arun Jaitley, who hardly have a pan-India appeal. So, some people, including most of the six-crore Gujaratis, some in the national BJP, most in the RSS, and most importantly, Modi himself, believe that he has a pan-India appeal. There is no doubt that he has been singularly responsible for the industrial growth of the state, and for that, he has been acclaimed by one and all; most recently, and most significantly by the US congress. The positive change in USA’s stand with regards to Modi, as against refusing him a diplomatic status in the past was a shot in the arm for him. This, coupled by the recent SC ruling, prompted Narendra Modi to suddenly start seeing himself as a possible candidate for the top post in the event of the NDA forming a government in the next Lok Sabha. For this to become a reality, he needs, with utmost urgency, to wash himself clean of the taint of 2002 Gujarat riots, and thereby increase his ‘pan-India’ mass appeal, as well as convince the NDA allies, most of whom might be averse to Modi’s candidature because of the aforesaid reasons, most importantly JDU, whose Nitish Kumar infamously refused to allow Narendra Modi to campaign for BJP in Bihar during the last assembly elections for the fear of losing the Muslim votes that form a large chunk of the state’s electorate. So here comes into play the second bird that Modi is attempting to kill with his Sadbhavana fast. He has carefully chosen his audience to include prominent Muslims of Gujarat to attend his three day fast, and he made sure that the news of a Muslim Gujarati businessman settled in south Africa  donating 30 lacs rupees to his pet ‘Kanya kelavani’ project made headlines in the recent newspapers. And the fact that his Sadbhavna fast was inaugurated with chants of ‘Allah-u-Akbar’ and Shlokas, is clear proof of his intentions in this direction. Will he succeed in realizing his ambitions? Only time will tell.

 For me, Narendra Modi has been an outstanding administrator, someone who has really worked hard for the development of his state. Does this qualify him for the prime minister’s post? Perhaps yes. But would his success in Gujarat be a guarantee of his success at national level? Perhaps no. One must remember that Narendra Modi has not only been able to garner overwhelming majority in the past two elections he has faced in the state, proving that he has the masses on his side, he has had complete and unhindered control over the government’s functioning. The opposition offered by the congressmen in the state is so meager that I sometimes wonder if they go and sit on the ruling party’s side during the assembly sessions in the state! This has enabled Narendra Modi to function unhampered, almost as an autocrat, as a dictator. So, the power that Narendra Modi enjoys in Gujarat, along with the surety he has in his mind of not losing out his seat of power to anyone else in at least a few coming assembly terms, has made him to work for the state with a free mind, as against someone who would need to spend a lot of his time and energy just to retain his position. All these factors would disappear as soon as he steps out of Gujarat into the national arena. At national level, he would have to face internal party bickering, a stiff opposition, and he’d have to function, at times, in accordance to the demands of the ally parties. And anyone who knows the Gujarat chief minister would know that he cannot function without absolute control over the situation. And certainly not with anyone dictating terms to him. Further, to function as the CM of a state, with a readily available shoulder of the centre, either to rest the gun on and shoot from, or to put the blame on for the things that go awry, is a different ball game altogether from running a central government where one has to get used to the fact there is no one else above you to pass the buck on, or to ask help from.

Now coming to the most important factor that would determine his ascent to the post of prime-minister, if ever- the M factor, or the Muslim factor. Despite the fact that there has been an apparent ‘communal harmony’ in Gujarat since 2002, Narendra Modi can be hardly said to be at peace with the Muslims of his state. The rich Muslim businessman who donated 30 lacs, and those chanting Allah-hu-Akbar at the inauguration of his fasting notwithstanding, the Muslims in Gujarat are far from happy with Narendra Modi. The Muslims who are with him only appear to be with him. It is true that the Hindus and the Muslims have not fought each other since 2002. But, if there is no apparent animosity, there is no friendship, either. The Muslims don’t dare to fight the Hindus; and the Hindus don’t need to fight the Muslims. The deep societal divide under the calm surface is too tangible for those who are open to perceiving it. But unfortunately, most people are only too happy to play the ostrich. The two communities are co-existing, but they are not living together. The festivals in either community are celebrated strictly within the community; Diwali and Holi are celebrated by the Hindus with the Muslims withdrawn into their cocoons; while the Eid and Ramadan is celebrated by the Muslims all by themselves. The cross-community wishes, if any, are strictly business transactions. In fact, such festivals in the past few years have generated a sense of unknown fear among the masses, fear of communal tensions surfacing once again, prompting them to wish that the day got over as soon as possible without any skirmishes. Muslims and Hindus in Gujarat continue to live in separate localities, not only in towns and cities, in small villages as well. A Hindu would not need to buy a property in a Muslim locality (there are so many choices for them), and a Muslim would not be allowed to buy one in a Hindu area. Can this be called communal harmony? Technically yes, but practically no. Absence of animosity is not friendship. And I am blaming both communities for this sorry state of affairs, more so the Muslims. The Muslims in Gujarat must realize that the majority Hindu community right now under the able leadership of Narendra Modi is self-sufficient by itself, and it does not need the Muslim community in any way for their own prosperity. And they can continue to prosper by simply ignoring the Muslims, forever. Thus, any loss is for the Muslim community in not patching up this divide. And the patching up of this divide cannot happen by itself, but by being proactive in regaining the confidence and friendship of the majority community. I am sure that for every step taken by the Muslim community, two will be taken by the majority community members. Even they cannot afford to have a permanent soured-up relationship with the minorities in the state.
However, by saying this, I do not mean to say that Muslims in the state must necessarily forget the pogrom of 2002, but they must have full faith in the judiciary for punishing the real perpetrators of the shame of 2002.   

Finally, regarding the chief minister himself, the Gujarat Muslims have never been an electoral problem for Narendra Modi. He would never need Muslim votes to get elected, or for getting the BJP to power in Gujarat. But his callous attitude towards Gujarat Muslims can go against him at national level. Therefore, if not for power at state level, Narendra Modi must make peace with the Muslims of his state in order to succeed politically at national level. And he can make peace with the Muslims of his state by ensuring justice for the 2002 riot victims by bringing the guilty to book, and with an apology for what happened at that time. I’m sure this small gesture would go a long way in ensuring support of the Muslim electorate from all over India, and not just Gujarat, possibly helping him to secure the Prime minister’s post.